Econometric forecasting of the influence of production factors on the cost price reduction of a product
Victor M. Zaernyuk*, Dr. Sc. (Economics), Prof., firstname.lastname@example.org
Nadezhda N. Filimonova**, Cand. Sc. (Economics), Associate Prof., email@example.com
* Russian State Geological Prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze, Moscow, Russian Federation
** Russian new University, Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract: It is true that the cost price of product is one of the most important general economic indicator of the organization’s activity, which reflects the efficiency of the use of production resources, the introduction of the latest progressive technologies and equipment, characterizes the degree of improvement in production, management and organization of labor. Key production factors that determine the greatest impact on the cost price of product of Kuzbass coal mining enterprises were investigated and identified in the article, on the basis of correlation-regression analysis. The purpose of the research is to study the cost management system of coal mining enterprises and to develop a predictive model of the influence of production factors on the cost price of product. The methodological basis of the research included the methods of scientific cognition. The estimation was carried out by the least-squares method. The results of the work of Russian scientists in the field of cost price management were used in the work. The data set was checked for multicollinearity, the homogeneity of the data was checked with the help of the Chow test, the check for homoscedasticity was based on the tests of Goldfeld-Kuandt, Breusch-Pagan and White. A strong linear relationship between the factor variables, which was eliminated during the analysis of the correlation matrix, was established to check the initial observation set for multicollinearity. The indicator of current costs claims to be the most affected by the volume of coal mining, the size of the company’s assets and labor productivity. Statistical evaluation of the received equation for the marked tests makes it possible to assert with 95% confidence that the obtained predictive model is statistically significant, and this fact gives the authors a reason to recommend it for use in forecasting practice.
Keywords: cost price of product, economic forecasting, forecast model, correlation analysis, model quality
For citation: Zaernyuk V.M., Filimonova N.N., Econometric forecasting of the influence of production factors on the cost price reduction of a product. Service plus, vol. 12, no. 1, 2018, pp. 56-66. DOI: 10.22412/1993-7768-12-1-6.
- Asaul AN, Sevek VK, Manchyk-Sat Ch.S., Sevek R.M., Cost management and controlling. Kyzyl, 2014, 236 p. [In Russ.]
- Baraz V.R., Correlation-regression analysis of the connection of indicators of commercial activity using the Excel program. Ekaterinburg, 2005, 102 p. [In Russ.]
- Budasova V.A. The evolution of views on the problem of formation of the production costs. Vestnik Adygeiskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 5 Sibirskaya finansovaya shkola, no. 4, 2011, pp. 14-19. [In Russ.]
- Bulycheva T.V., Development of the theory of cost and calculation of prime cost in the modern conditions. Teoriya i praktika obshchestvennogo razvitiya, no. 3, 2014, pp. 263-266. [In Russ.]
- Vorotnikova I.V., Rizvanov N.A., Business forecasting of the company based on financial analysis of JSC “Bashneft”. Finansovaya zhizn’, no. 1, 2017, pp. 70-73. [In Russ.]
- Golikov O.I., Nikolaeva N.A., The basics of classification and methods of cost management in the system of strategic management accounting. Azimut nauchnykh issledovanii: ekonomika i upravlenie, no. 1, 2014, pp. 26-30. [In Russ.]
- Zaernyuk V.M., Evaluation of the development of payment services using bank cards in Russian regions on the basis of correlation-regression analysis. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya, no. 22 (160), 2013, pp. 37-43. [In Russ.]
- Zimin A.F., Management of qualitative parameters of activity in oil refineries (organizational and economic aspects). Doctor of Economics’ thesis. Samara, 1998. [In Russ.]
- Kot E.M., Pilnikova I.F., Theoretical and historical aspects of accounting for production costs and production expenses. Agrarnyi vestnik Urala, no. 12 (130), 2014, pp. 78-83. [In Russ.]
- Kurilova A.A., Kurilov K.Yu., Creation strategic cost management system of an industrial enterprise. Vestnik NGIEI, no. 3 (58), 2016, pp. 31-40. [In Russ.]
- Kurilov K.Yu., Kurilova A.A., Determination of priority directions of development and key indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the cost management mechanism for enterprises in the automotive industry using the cluster analysis method. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika, no. 38, 2011, pp. 13-24. [In Russ.]
- Morozova N.S., Merkulova E.Yu., Analysis of reserves of decrease in product cost. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie yavleniya i protsessy, vol. 11, no. 7, 2016, pp. 21-27. [In Russ.]
- Nizovkina N.G., Costs management of the enterprise (organization). Novosibirsk, 2011, 183 p. [In Russ.]
- Palii V.F., Expenses for exploration and evaluation of mineral resources. Bukhgalterskii uchet, no. 14, 2007, pp.49-51. [In Russ.]
- Petrova E.M., Cherednichenko O.A., Economics of the organization (enterprise). Stavropol, 2015, 184 p. [In Russ.]
- Salmanov O.N., Mathematical Economics with the use of Mathcad and Excel. Saint-Petersburg, 2003, 464 p. [In Russ.]
- Khegai Yu.A., Vasil’eva Z.A., Cost management. Krasnoyarsk, 2015, 230 p. [In Russ.]
- Altman E.I., Sabato G., Modeling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the US Market. Abacus, vol. 43, no. 3, 2007, pp. 332-357.
- Beaver W.H., Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 4, 1966, pp. 71-111.
- Hardle W.K. et al. The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines. German Institute for Economic Research. Discussion Papers, no. 757, 2007, pp. 1-30.
- Ohlson J.A., Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 18, no. 1, 1980, pp. 109-131.