ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING OF THE INFLUENCE OF PRODUCTION FACTORS ON THE COST PRICE REDUCTION OF A PRODUCT

УДК 330.13:338.5
DOI: 10.22412/1993-7768-12-1-6

Econometric forecasting of the influence of production factors on the cost price reduction of a product

Victor M. Zaernyuk*, Dr. Sc. (Economics), Prof., zvm4651@mail.ru
Nadezhda N. Filimonova**, Cand. Sc. (Economics), Associate Prof., filimonova-nadin@yandex.ru

* Russian State Geological Prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze, Moscow, Russian Federation
** Russian new University, Moscow, Russian Federation


Abstract: It is true that the cost price of product is one of the most important general economic indicator of the organization’s activity, which reflects the efficiency of the use of production resources, the introduction of the latest progressive technologies and equipment, characterizes the degree of improvement in production, management and organization of labor. Key production factors that determine the greatest impact on the cost price of product of Kuzbass coal mining enterprises were investigated and identified in the article, on the basis of correlation-regression analysis. The purpose of the research is to study the cost management system of coal mining enterprises and to develop a predictive model of the influence of production factors on the cost price of product. The methodological basis of the research included the methods of scientific cognition. The estimation was carried out by the least-squares method. The results of the work of Russian scientists in the field of cost price management were used in the work. The data set was checked for multicollinearity, the homogeneity of the data was checked with the help of the Chow test, the check for homoscedasticity was based on the tests of Goldfeld-Kuandt, Breusch-Pagan and White. A strong linear relationship between the factor variables, which was eliminated during the analysis of the correlation matrix, was established to check the initial observation set for multicollinearity. The indicator of current costs claims to be the most affected by the volume of coal mining, the size of the company’s assets and labor productivity. Statistical evaluation of the received equation for the marked tests makes it possible to assert with 95% confidence that the obtained predictive model is statistically significant, and this fact gives the authors a reason to recommend it for use in forecasting practice.

Keywords: cost price of product, economic forecasting, forecast model, correlation analysis, model quality

For citation: Zaernyuk V.M., Filimonova N.N., Econometric forecasting of the influence of production factors on the cost price reduction of a product. Service plus, vol. 12, no. 1, 2018, pp. 56-66. DOI: 10.22412/1993-7768-12-1-6.

Submitted: 2018/01/15.

Accepted: 2018/02/16.


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